Social Research and Counterinsurgency, Part II
Klare, Michael & Brightman, Carol
The university and think-tank professors, the foreign area specialists and intelligence gatherers, and the private resarchers who comprise the counterinsurgency research network cur- rently perform...
...military assistance, advisory, and civic action programs...
...The aim of this project, according to CRESS, "is to develop knowledge about the changing nature of the political, social, economic, and cultural roles and functions of military establishments in the contemporary world...
...Human Sciences Research, Inc., a McLean, Virginia firm which has worked on Project Agile, recently received an ONR contract for research on "The Development of U.S...
...In 1966, Molnar began work on a project entitled "The Communist Movement in South Vietnam: A Case Study in Organization and Strategy...
...To determine the degree to which such a generalization is applicable to the current situation in the Congo, a brief recapitulation of certain aspects of recent Congolese history serves as a useful point of departure...
...Hereinafter cited as "Social/Behavioral Projects...
...Basic research on the mechanisms of attitude change is now being conducted by several American universities under con- tract to the Department of Defense...
...Janowitz himself has published a study of 'The Military in the Political Development of New Nations...
...There is...
...Halpern's report constituted "an attempt to define the Lao elite and show their relationship to other groups in the population...
...government...
...the strategic research programs, on the other hand, identify the most effective combination of countermeasures for defeating an insurgency at each of these stages...
...TAB, June 1, 1967...
...It is now time to consider the use to which such studies are put in the development of strategic guidelines for intervention, counterrevolution and counterinsurgency...
...In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee...
...In a follow-up report, "Factors Involved in Modify- ing Hostile Attitudes," McGinnies will describe his study of "the factors which determine whether attitude change of Far East groups is based on persuasive communications on stra- tegic issues...
...Elliot McGinnies of the University of Maryland holds a Navy contract for work on a "Cross-Cultural Investigation of Some Factors in Persuasion and Attitude Change...
...in the continued exploitation and oppression of their fellow countrymen...
...The third task brings the research network into the forefront of psychological warfare operations...
...Minimum contribution for 1-year subscription: $5.00...
...The studies assess the susceptibility of the various audiences to persuasion and their effectiveness m- 4 or influence in their own society...
...These new institutions, which adopt modern capitalist modes of organization and management, are designed to channel, co-opt and pacify popular antagonism to surviving feudal and colonial institutions...
...command still lacks any comprehension of what motivates the revolutionary forces...
...and valid operational parameters for...
...3 7 These three "foci of change and unrest" were selected because: "(1) Urban communities were the centers of African nationalist activity and now are the setting for intense frustration and potential violent manifestations of unrest...
...Such groups, because of either (1) a history of hostility between them and the dominant ethnic group...
...A 1965 Pentagon research inventory indicates that this report "was developed in response to request for information on those social, economic...
...3 4 Complementing these studies of foreign military establishments are a series of Pentagon-financed investigations of other social formations which play a key role in underdeveloped societies-particularly students, urban intellectuals, and native entrepreneurs...
...Like the first, it is based on a thoroughgoing investigation of the social underpinnings of the target culture-although here atten- tion is focused on those values, social relations an4 communi- cations institutions which lend themselves to external manipula- tion in the interests of U.S...
...Even the experiences of the Axis Powers during World War II have been studied in this drive to accumulate information on the tactics of counterguerrilla warfare...
...J. William Fulbright...
...economic penetration of that continent...
...In a theoretical discussion of this mode of analysis, Abt researcher Holly J. Kinley, explained: "The study of insurgency involves the consideration of a great many complicated variables interacting with each other...
...These games included "AGILE-COIN," a counterguerrilla game...
...This project, originally entitled "An Analysis of Military Operations in Support of Interfial Security in Developing Nations," is concentrating on "the organization, operations, and techniques of internal security forces in combatting subversive organizations and maintaining public security, both prior to and during insurgency...
...While all of these studies are relevant to the conflict in Vietnam, the U.S...
...b) determine a technique spectrum, e.g., demonstrations, strategic mobility exercises, etc., for military show-of-force employments in instances of actual or potential tension...
...The work at Chicago includes a study of "Public Order and the Military in Africa: East Africa Examples...
...An early study, entitled "A Historical Survey of Patterns and Techniques of Insurgency Conflicts in Post-1900 Latin America" was designed to "identify patterns and techniques of national and lower-scale insurgency conflicts in Latin America since 1900 in order to derive data of assistance to U.S...
...Since the program began in 1957, SOROCRESS has produced 25 of these guides, which were formerly known as Psychological Operations Handbooks...
...During this period, a research team consisting of Allan R. Holmberg, Morris E. Opler and Lauriston Sharp produced reports on "Methods for Analyzing Cultural Change" and "Strategic Intervention in the Cultural Change Process...
...In 1966, Chong Sik Lee of the RAND Corporation completed a report on "Counterinsurgency in Manchuria: The Japanese Experience, 1931-1940...
...Ibid., Pt...
...counterinsurgency strategy is to mobilize certain elements of foreign populations in the struggle against insurgent movements within their own borders...
...and ideological circumstances or conditions within the Republic of Vietnam that could be exploited for psychological purposes...
...Hopefully, they provide the reader with a balanced sampling of the kinds of research presently being performed at American universities and think-tanks...
...8 Chemical Warfare Training in the U.S...
...The Chicago team, headed by Morris Janowitz, studied military elites in East Africa, Egypt and the Middle East...
...1834...
...An outstanding example of this kind of work, and one that has become the source of considerable controversy in the United States Senate, is a 1964 CRESS study of "Witchcraft, Sorcery, Magic and Other Psycho-Phenomena and Their Implications for Military and Paramilitary Operations in the Congo...
...2 6 The Special Operations Research Office was originally set up to perform research on psychological warfare, and this work continues to be a major responsibility of CRESS...
...25...
...2 1 (Emphasis added...
...this RAND project is described as "an analysis in support ot Air Force plans and intelligence of the role of the military in the developing political...
...Consequently, most research in this area is conducted under the auspices of the Agency for International Development (AID...
...In February 1966, CRESS completed a comprehensive survey of "Minority Groups in the Republic of Vietnam...
...According to a 1968 progress report on the project, the participating scientists will investigate the development of new organizations in the developing countries, and record "their modes of counteracting opposition and the circumstances that support or retard their institutionalization...
...would be able to develop mechanisms for breaking down these patterns of loyalty and securing popular support for our client governments...
...According to the author, this study consisted of "an examination of the methods used by the Japanese in the successful suppression of insurgency in Manchuria in the 1930s...
...Special Forces' effort to mobilize the Vietnamese Montagnards for service in the Saigon regime's "irregular defense forces...
...l 6 A second CRESS project on "World Patterns of Civil Violence" was intended "to increase understanding of the conditions under which violence enters into the political process by making exploratory tests across polities of multivariate predictive models of the incidence of political violence in developing areas...
...An abstract of the study indicates: "This memorandum draws mainly on 71 exhaustive interviews that RAND's field team conducted in 1964-65 with captives and defectors among the regroupees, the Southern Communist troops who were moved to North Vietnam after 1954 and were later trained and reinfiltrated in large numbers to serve as cadres in the current struggle...
...4 2 The RAND Corporation, meanwhile, contributed a study of "The Major Ethnic Groups of the South Vietnamese Highlands," which was clearly linked to the U.S...
...I (1963), p. 109...
...Policy Planning Studies," p. S4420...
...The study is designed to -(a) determine a precise definition of...
...See Hearings 1970, Pt...
...In this way, it was hoped that the U.S...
...A preliminary announcement of Project Camelot by the Special Operations Research Office (SORO) of the American University stated that the Army had agreed to fund the project because of "the The NACLA NEWSLETTER is published ten times a year by the North American Congress on Latin America...
...Department of Defense, Defense Documentation Center, Technical A bstract Bulletin, May 15, 1967...
...26...
...VIII, p. 1086...
...This eventually will make it necessary for a judgment to be made as to the advisability of such aid, the form it should take, and the problems of its administration by agencies of the Department of Defense...
...At the earliest stage of intervention, before armed struggle has broken out but during a period of discontent and unrest, current U.S...
...In the past few years, such research has concentrated on the problem of preventing "more Vietnams"-i.e., protracted struggles which require the intervention of large numbers of U.S...
...Work Program 1967, p. 17 29...
...Hereinafter cited as Work Program 1967...
...In a discussion of this kind of research, CRESS stated in 1966 that "The Subcommittee on Behavorial Sciences of the Defense Science Board last year called for more application of operations research methods in the behavioral and social sciences, including the need for 'as study effort to determine the feasibility of applying the currently developing techniques of social systems modeling and simulation to the exploration of the parameters of the insurgency/counterinsurgency problem.' -18 In response to this need, CRESS proposed a study of "The Development of Analytic Models of Social Processes...
...Strike Command has advised that the report is valuable for their contingency planning...
...Thus in 1966 the Systems Engineering Evaluation and Research Division of the Radio Corporation of America was awarded a Pentagon contract to study "Limited War Prospects 1970-80...
...create a test environment for assessing the impact of alternative political, economic, or military actions taken within or with respect to such societies...
...to play off the classes and sectors of the host country population against each other in the interest of U.S...
...This periodical hereinafter cited as TAB...
...to intervene in the political and social processes of the host country...
...Work Program 1967, pp...
...In 1965, for instance, the Air Force awarded several contracts to a group of sociologists at the University of California in Berkeley for research on Latin American elites...
...and the probable role o Indonesia in the larger- 5 - context of U.S...
...Their fear of government forces diminished, and conversely, fear of the rebels grew within army ranks...
...A second CRESS research team has been engaged in a study of "The Nonmilitary Effects of Physical Force by Counterinsurgency Military Units in Phase I Low Intensity Warfare...
...The RAND Corporation has conducted several classified studies of "Viet Cong Motivation and Morale" for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs...
...In response to a request from the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), Abt developed several manual counterinsurgency games, in which human players represented insurgents, villagers and government troops in simulated exercises of various counterinsurgency strategies...
...Riley Sunderland of the RAND Corporation prepared a number of studies of the guerrilla war in Malaya, including: "Army Operations in Malaya, 1947-1960," "Antiguerrilla In- telligence in Malaya," and "Resetilement and Food Control in Malaya, 1948-1960...
...A review of available literature indicates that in Africa, uprisings embodying supernatural practices have tended to occur generally whenever the continued physical safety or internal power structure of a tribe or tribes have been seriously threatened...
...Second-class postage paid at New York, N.Y...
...The university and think-tank professors, the foreign area specialists and intelligence gatherers, and the private resarchers who comprise the counterinsurgency research network cur- rently perform five basic tasks for the U.S...
...According to the author of this study, Gerald C. Hickey, the RAND report contained detailed information on "the settlement pattern, social organization, and religious practices" of each major group.-6 5. Counterinsurgency Strategies Under the heading "Counterinsurgency Models," we described U.S...
...aid has created a new, Western-oriented bureaucracy in Saigon to replace the traditional Mandarin aristocracy and the French colonial civil service...
...Pauker of the RAND orporation currently holds an Air Force contract for research on "The Role of the Military in Indonesia...
...In the early 1960s, the Department of Defense commissioned a comprehensive series of studies of the French-lndochinese War (1946-54), the French-Algerian War (1954-1960), and the British anti-guerrilla war in Malaya (1947-1960...
...hegemony...
...Many of them will be active in the leadership of any insurgency because of their oppositional mentality...
...2 7 (Emphasis added...
...The Pentagon's concern with this problem is clearly enunciated in a report by the Research Analysis...
...The Georgetown Research Project of Atlantic Research subsequently prepared a series of detailed reports on counterinsurgency activities in selected Latin American countries as part of Project Agile...
...Although it is of limited present use except for planning purposes, it is their judgment that if the need ever arises for substantial U.S...
...military effort in Vietnam...
...power in the world arena...
...seeks to extend its hegemony...
...for Foreign Military Personnel...
...TAB, Aug...
...IX, p. 147...
...Such efforts, which usually fall under the heading of "nation-building," "institution-building," or simply modernization, are usually carried out through the foreign aid program...
...Naval and Marine forces in future Vietnam-type wars...
...Ibid...
...l __ - -~3 struggles for national liberation anticipated many of the fea- tures of the present conflict in Southeast Asia, and the Penta- gon's strategists have studied them closely to develop tactics for the U.S...
...2) Students are important because of their political involvement, intellectual resources, and prestigious status among the masses...
...Included in the analysis will be: (I) the Lao Dong (People's Revolutionary Party) (2) the National Front for Liberation of South Vietnam, and its associated mass organizations and administrative responsibilities, and (3) the military forces...
...we shall see however, that the distinction between U.S...
...2) their location in remote areas and consequently their lack of close contact with the national government and its representatives...
...The Pentagon needs to know if the indigenous military can be relied upon to take to the field against guerrilla formations, and if they can be persuaded to perform a "modernizing" role in their society (by engaging in civic action programs) and thus circumvent traditional popular antipathy to the military establishment...
...it is a well-known fact that the U.S...
...This process has been particularly pronounced in Vietnam, where U.S...
...hegemony in their country...
...3 5 In the past few years, the Pentagon has begun a major effort to fill the gaps in its knowledge of African society, in order to keep pace with the rapid pace of U.S...
...It is likely that direct or indirect [U.S.I military and ancillary aid will in the future frequently be required or requested in increasing amounts by friendly African governments...
...The material presented has been selected as a point of departure and as a thought stimulant for those engaged in planning and implementing actual psychological operations in Vietnam...
...One study, entitled "A Srvey and Formalization of Theories and Propositions Relevant to Revolutionary Social Processes," was designed to "produce a codified and readily retrievable system of knowledge, facts and theory relevant to revolutionary potential and related social processes-preconditions, precipitants, forms and consequences...
...3. Psychological Operations The third task performed by social scientists on behalf of U.S...
...Box 57, Cathedral Park Station, New York, N.Y...
...strategy calls for the creation of new social, economic and political institutions with a Western orientation...
...Ibid.,p.41...
...The Inter-University Research Program in Institution Building, A Review of Phase I, 1964-1968 (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh, 1968), p. 4. 45...
...A number of 'appeal ideas' which could be used in specific situations to influence specific audiences in the desired direction are suggested...
...Social Research and Counterinsurgency, Part II...
...These reports, all highly classified, were based on secret British military documents...
...4 5 The third kind of stragetic planning is concerned with the defeat of full-scale guerrilla warfare and "peoples war" as practiced by the NLF in South Vietnam...
...The Pentagon has occasionally supported research in this field in order to complement the work being done under AID sponsorship...
...l 9 The most extensive program of research on the application of social systems modeling to the problem of countering insurgency was undertaken in 1965 by Abt Associates of Cambridge, Mass...
...60-67...
...Thus the RAND Corporation is conducting an ongoing study of "Insurgent Forces" which is described as an "analysis of certain U.S...
...3 6 In essence, CRESS is saying that there is inadequate intelligence on the loyalties and political orientation of key African groups...
...policymaking...
...Henry Cabot Lodge's observation of Vietnamese character in the fall of 1965 stands as a classic example of this incomprehension: the then Ambassador to South Vietnam said that he would know that the war had been won "when one morning the young man who's been in the Vietcong wakes up and says, 'I am not going back today and the reason I'm not going back is (a) I think I'll get killed, and (b) I look around me and I see the rice and fish and the ducks and the cocoanuts, the pineapples, American aid coming in and life looks pretty good right here...
...The New York Times, Sept...
...Accord- ing to ONR, this project is designed to "provide information useful to the USMC in developing pacification or 'other war' capabilities to be utilized in limited or small war situations...
...2 0 Theoretical exercises of this sort require a great quantity of raw data on historical instances of insurgent and counterinsurgent warfare...
...Army engages in PSYOPS...
...According to RCA, "This study investigates the effect of environmental, technological or doctrinal change on the forms and forces of limited warfare in the 1970-80 decade...
...An early SORO study of "Undergrounds in Insurgent, Revolutionary and Resistance Warfare," prepared by Andrew Molnar in 1963, begins with the statement that: " . . . it is vital to U.S...
...FOOTNOTES 14...
...The study seeks to present as full and as balanced an integrated exposition on selected tribal and other minority groups, as limitations on space and research time permit...
...4 8 Although it is still desperately bogged down in Vietnam, the U.S...
...The theoretical models produced as a result of historical research frequently delineate various "stages" of insurgency, usually beginning with terrorism and strikes, and proceeding to guerrilla warfare and finally conventional warfare...
...In circumstances where a process so little understood and so complex is to be analyzed, it is often fruitful to proceed by means of modeling and simulation...
...These earlier NACLA NEWSLETTER Vol...
...4 9 AFTERWORD The social science research projects described above represent only a small percentage of U.S...
...TAB, May 1, and June 1, 1967...
...Hereinafter cited as Hearings 1970...
...military policies...
...Magical practices are said to be effective in conditioning dissident elements and their followers to do battle with government troops...
...Table inserted by Sen...
...government does not encourage the use of the word "propaganda" in discussions of the Pentagon's psychological warfare programs...
...House of Representatives, House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee, Department of Defense Ap- propriations for 1970, Part V, p. 184...
...Department of State...
...In unusually frank language, Halpern explained that "An understanding of the cultural attitudes and social values of the elite might aid in the development of a group that can exert effective local leadership towards goals compatible with Western interests and values...
...For a complete list, see the quarterly list of AID-Financed University Contracts published by the U.S...
...Military DecisionMaking," CRESS states the reasons for increased Pentagon concern with social conditions in Africa: "The new states of independent Black Africa are undergoing rapid sociocultural and political change...
...the military show-of-force type operation...
...Thus, there are clear and current policy needs for research designed to provide military decision-makers and administrators with relevant information and concepts on the urban, intellectual, and military subcommunities and leaders...
...SORO press release, Dec...
...TAB, June 15, 1967...
...counterinsurgency strategy, the group of greatest interest to Washington is the native military...
...Policy Planning Studies with Foreign Policy Implications," Congressional Record-Senate (May 1, 1969), p. S4418...
...3 1 Certain aspects of the CRESS program on foreign military elites have been subcontracted to researchers at other universities in the U.S...
...But they are also a product of the particular military organizations and leaders of the new states of Africa, as well as of the organizations and leaders of the new states of Africa, as well as of the organizational and infrastructural underdevelopment characteristics of many states...
...At the top of the list is the investigation of the social factors which may in turn precipitate or preclude insurgency, particularly in agrarian societies where the "social controls" built into advanced industrial countries are weak or altogether absent...
...URB-COIN," an urban counterinsurgency game, and "POLITICA," a manual "countersubversion and counterconspiracy game...
...Additional studies of foreign military elites are being conducted by several private research organizations...
...In particular, it involves the production of "elite studies" and studies of minorities which enable the U.S...
...The RAC report concludes: "Recent counterinsurgent operations in Southeast Asia have pointed up the importance of tribal and other minority groups in underdeveloped countries susceptible to communist-inspired insurgency...
...7 As the war in Vietnam increased in intensity, the U.S...
...research on counterinsurgency...
...Second is the development of operational "models" (usually through historical analogue) which identify those as- pects of an actual state of insurgency most susceptible to military control...
...experiences in Vietnam, aiming at generalization applicable to future U.S...
...Thus Lyle McAlister of the University of Florida was commissioned to conduct a study of "The Changing Roles of the Military in Latin America," based on case studies of the military establishments in Colombia, Peru, Argentina and Mexico...
...With the demise of Project Camelot in 1966 it became necessary to institute a substitute program of research in this area...
...The U.S...
...These studies included "A Depth Study of Communist Insur- gency and Government Counteraction in Colombia," and "A Study of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency Operations and Techniques in Venezuela, 1960-1964...
...This ongoing project, according to McGinnies, is...
...Marine Corps Combined Action Capabilities for Vietnam and Fture Contingencies...
...V, p. 182...
...2 8 CRESS has already produced secret reports on the "Psychological Vulnerabilities" of the Soviet Union, Cuba, Thailand and North Vietnam...
...In 1960, for example, J.M...
...Zasloff of RAND in 1966 prepared a study entitled "Political Motivation of the Viet Cong: The Vietminh Regroupees...
...Policy Planning Studies," p. S4419...
...In particular, the Pentagon sought to identify the factors which led peasants in underdeveloped societies to give their loyalty to an underground political organization at the risk of their lives...
...5 0 What remains to United States strategy is the incredible force and persistence of American bombs-incendiary bombs, chemical bombs, anti-personal bombs, high-explosive bombsand the self-sustaining momentum of the vast military machine which converts every random piece of intelligence into a 'target of opportunity' for new bombing missions in a desperate effort to cover up the defeat of the neocolonial alternative to true liberation...
...Not surprisingly, the Pentagon has shown particular interest in the experience of the European colonial powers in fighting anti-guerrilla wars against liberation movements in Africa and Asia following World War II...
...Ideological Offensive...
...In order to forestall renewed criticism, Camelot's tasks were broken down into separate research projects and distributed to a number of universities and think-tanks...
...Work Program 1967, p. 21...
...The Inter-University Research Program in Institution Building, inaugurated in 1964, is an example of the many university research products being conducted with AID funds...
...Ibid., p. 51...
...Military Interests," is designed to "identify and describe characteristics of the social systems of Communist countries pertinent to military planning...
...or (3) the fact that they occupy terrain of strategic importance both to insurgent and government forces...
...The fourth task entails the production of anthropological and sociological in- formation which can be used by the U.S...
...1002S P.O...
...defense interests, particularly those of the U.S...
...As part of this effort, Jones in 1966 prepared a manual of techniques for "Combatting Subversively Manipulated Civil Disturbances...
...The Research Analysis Corpora- tion (RAC) prepared a report on "Helicopter Operations in the French-Algerian War," and David Galula of RAND contributed a study of "Pacification in Algeria, 1956-58...
...In June 1964, Andrew D. Sens and Joseph M. Macrum completed a study of "Psychological Opportunities in the Republic of Vietnam...
...17...
...It permits the consideration of a dynamic process as an integrated whole, whereas separate examination of each element might suggest a totally misleading picture of the overall process...
...became increasingly concerned with the sociological and psychological characteristics of guerrilla organizations...
...Adrian Jones heads an ongoing CRESS study of "Internal Security" which is intended to "assist in formulating doctrine on internal security problems of civil and paramilitary forces related to the prevention and countering of insurgency in developing nations...
...According to the report's authors, this study "was designed to be useful to military and other personnel who need a convenient compilation of basic facts about the social, economic and political institutions and practices of minority groups in the Republic of Vietnam...
...Thus in 1965 Harry Eckstein of Princeton University received a Navy contract to study "The Social Bases of Stable Political Systems...
...psychological operations...
...According to project director Edward Gude, the study would offer "guidance for program planners charged with deciding the use of force concerning the likely reactions of significant noncombatant groups as well as the insurgents...
...As part of this work, Marilou Fromme prepared a report entitled "Brief Notes on the Tahoi, Pocoh and Phuong Tribes of the Republic of Vietnam," and Skaidrite Maliks Fallah conducted a study of "The Customs and Taboos of Selected Tribes Residing Along the Western Border of the Republic of Vietnam...
...3 9 Pentagon-sponsored studies of foreign elites are complemented by a similar program of research on religious, ethnic and social minorities...
...15 NORTH AMERICAN CONGRESS ON LATIN AMERICA (NACLA) NACLA P.O...
...A model may be defined as a simplified representation of a process (usually a complicated process), and a simulation as the exercise of operation of that model...
...American University, Center for Research in Social Systems, Work Program for Fiscal Year 1967 (Washington, D.C.: The American University, 1966), p. 47...
...The U.S...
...The RAND Corporation, meanwhile, received similar Air Force contracts for research on the elites of selected Southeast Asian societies...
...1, 1965...
...for example, a secret Army-sponsored study of The Employment of Military Units in Show-of-Force Operations...
...These studies are being conducted by a group of social scientists at Pittsburgh, Indiana, Syracuse and Michigan State Universities...
...TAB, June 15, 1967...
...has shown particular interest in the British resettlement program in Malaya...
...security interests in Southeast Asia...
...Rebel tribesmen seem to have been persuaded that they can be made magically impervious to Congolese Army firepower...
...counterinsurgency strategy...
...Such research also performs an intelligence function, by determining whether in oppressed minority is likely to resort to armed force if its grievances are not redressed...
...Westwood Research, Inc., of Los Angeles, Calif., received an ONR contract in 1965 to conduct a study of "Seapower in Special Warfare...
...IV, No...
...3 3 At the same time, Amos Perlmutter of Operations and Policy Research, Inc.-a CIA-linked organization based in Washington, D.C.-is engaged in a study of "The Political Functions of the Military in the Middle East and North Africa...
...The study seeks to illustrate the thinking and morale of these regroupees by quoting extensiveiv from their own statements...
...ground troops...
...1 0 ( RISS has continued Illthis work itlholl interruptin to the present tlilc...
...Using elaborate war games, computer simulation techniques and mathematical model-building, teams of social scientists plot the strategic scenarios which in turn guide the mechanisms of intervention with which the U.S...
...According to Eckstein, the project was oriented toward "the discovery of actions required to make political systems more stable and more resistant to insurgency...
...In order "to fill these enormous gaps in vital information and conceptualization concerning Africa," CRESS was commissioned by the U.S...
...This study of "the dynamics of political violence as a manipulative force in conflict management" was designed to prevent the spread of an insurgency because of insufficient or excessive use of force in quelling demonstrations...
...47-9...
...Ibid., p. 25...
...Social/Behavioral Projects," p. S4422...
...Table of research projects inserted by Sen...
...The CRESS Work Program Fiscal Year 1967 lists several projects which are clearly related to the original Camelot program...
...Many CRESS studies are designed to develop operational guidelines for the early containment and defeat of insurgent movements...
...Ibid...
...Here too, the objective is to identify social formations within a society that can be manipulated to the advantage of U.S...
...and defense structIure ot Indonesia...
...Research on psychological operations (or, in military jargon, PSYOPS) actually involves two kinds of tasks: first, basic research on the mechanisms of "attitude change" and persuasion, and second, anthropological and sociological research on specific societies to determine the symbols and arguments that will be most effective in producing certain attitudes in the target population...
...Subscription price: $5 per year...
...Latin American Research Review, II (Fall, 1966), p. 94...
...It follows from all this that a major task of the counterinsurgent social scientist is to identify those classes, elites, nationalities and ethnic groups in a given country that can be co-opted or otherwise manipulated in the interest of continued U.S...
...The model may then be exercised, that is, the simulation may be carried out, using human players (a manual game), or an electronic computer (a computer simulation), or a combination of both...
...Finally, there is a fifth task, which to a large extent underlies and shapes the other four: the development of political-military strategies for the main- tenance of U.S...
...Ibid...
...CRESS has already published Intercultural Communications Guides for Afghanistan, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, Colombia, The Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Laos, Lebanon, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, South Vietnam, Syria, Thailand, Turkey, and Venezuela...
...strategic hamlet" program in Vietnam was based on the British effort in Malaya...
...By these definitions a simulation presupposes the existence of a model, and implies that the model's variables are given particular (though not necessarily precisely known) values for the purpose...
...This project, being conducted by John R. Thomas of the Research Anlaysis Corporation, encompasses "a case-by-case analysis of instances of the employment of military units of all nations . . . in show-of-force operations...
...Particular emphasis is placed upon the relationship of military roles to processes of social change and the connection between developmental trends and changing military structure and functions...
...Ibid., p. 49...
...Halpern of RAND completed a report entitled "The Lao Elite: A Study of Tradition and Innovation...
...Strike Command and concerned [per- sonnel] on the sociopolitical structures and dynamics as well as those aspects of leadership resources that would be of significance to military operations...
...Lipset's tasks included an analysis of the extent to which students contribute to the relative stability or instability of certain Latin American countries...
...pursues its imperial interests in the Third World...
...Perlmutter's study, which is being financed by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR), is designed to provide an "improved understanding of the role of foreign military forces in the stabilization of the Middle East...
...The same research team conducted a "Study of Threats and Terror" in order to help "legal governments with minimum security forces"-e.g., the U.S.-sponsored regime in Saigon"instill a feeling of security from terrorism within the general populace...
...or (4) a combination of these reasons, will probably constitute primary targets for subversion in future communist wars of 'national liberation.' "40 Research on minority groups in Southeast Asia has been the responsibility of SORO-CRESS, the RAND Corporation, and a number of American universities...
...research on recent guerrilla struggles and the development of predictive models of insurgent behavior...
...Hereinafter cited as "Policy Planning Studies...
...RAND Corporation, Selected RAND Abstracts, vol...
...7, 1965...
...In announcing this project, CRESS indicated that "This study will consist of a detailed analysis of captured enemy documents and literature, and broadcasts, disseminated from relevant Communist Bloc and uncommitted nations during the years 1957-65...
...1. Social Intelligence Insurgency, by official definition, exploits indigenous con- ditions: it draws its legitimacy from popular discontent with the established order, and its force from collective, local struggle...
...4 4 A related project at Cornell University, entitled "A Comparative Study of Social and Cultural Change," received AID grants worth a total of $521,772 between 1963 and 1966...
...The project's approach was "to analyze historical accounts of terrorist organizations and operations in order to formulate a theory of effective countermeasures...
...The Atlantic Research Corporation of Alexandria, Va., was commissioned by ARPA to conduct a series of studies on insurgency and counterinsurgency in Latin America...
...A 1966 description of this project, which was originally called "Sociological and Psychological Vulnerabilities of Hostile and Potential Hostile States," states that "there is a need for knowledge about the weaknesses and conflicts in values, beliefs, and motivations concerning various parts of the social, political, administrative, military, and other structures within a country so that potential and actual schisms may be anticipated...
...Since there are few university-educated people in the new states of Africa, students help to fill a vacuum, and as a consequence they have a magnified political role...
...Alternative Strategies for Insurgent (Conflicts," involves the development of U.S...
...The University of Chicago, meanwhile, received a CRESS subcontract to prepare a series of "Studies in Military Sociology...
...Another member of the Berkeley group was David Apter, who prepared a study of "The Politics of Modernization in Latin America...
...programs in "intercultural communication"-the approved terminology-and classical propaganda activities is non-existent...
...The primary objective was to provide infor- mation to U.S...
...3 8 In fulfillment of this undertaking, CRESS is working on reports concerning: "Community Leadership in Urban Africa," "Student Movements in Africa," "Student Leadership in Africa," "Indigenous Military Activities in Africa," and "Indigenous Military Leadership in Africa...
...most of this work, however, was retained by the Center for Research in Social Systems (CRESS), the successor to SORO...
...In the announcement of a major study of "African Groups Relevant to U.S...
...Specifically, an historical summary is provided and possible psychological opportunities and vulnerabilities are suggested...
...political, military...
...military assistance programs, foreign aid, and import subsidies are all designed to create a client population that is dependent upon continued U.S...
...Strike Command to prepare "descriptions and analyses of the three most relevant target groups and their leaders: the urban, the intellectual, and the military...
...TAB, July 15, 1965...
...strategic interests...
...1 Father Lain Joins Guerrillas -- Open Letter to the Colombian People...
...Department of Defense is already planning for the counterinsurgency wars of the decade 1970-1980...
...military presence in these countries the information contained in the document will be of great value...
...the work being done [is] based on the belief that the reduction of internal war (insurgency) potential often becomes possible by adjustment in regimes and forms of rule so as to allow an increase in their legitimacy and effectiveness relative to expectations...
...The Pentagon is therefore investigating a variety of techniques for "low intensity" counterinsurgency warfare...
...3) Military take-overs in Africa reflect urban and intellectual discontent, as well as a vacuum of rational political power...
...Box 226, Berkeley, California 94701- 2 - recognition at the highest levels of the defense establishment of the fact that relatively little is known, with a high degree of surety, about the social processes which must be understood ia order to deal effectively with problems of insurgency...
...In addition, each study contains the latest available data on communication facilities within the country and on cultural factors relevant to communications...
...counterinsurgency programs is the development of techniques and materials for psychological warfare operations...
...planning for research and development requirements of military counterinsurgency operations in Latin America...
...war effort in Southeast Asia...
...Seymour Martin Lipset received a 75,000 AFOSR contract for a study of "The Implications of National Development for Military Planning...
...Army, to have as complete an understanding as possible about the nature of undergrounds-their origins, membership, organization, missions, strategies, methods of action, and relationships to other elements of the total revolutionary movement, such as guerrilla units...
...The Algerian war has also served as a model for U.S...
...4 7- 7 - The Office of Naval Research (ONR) has sponsored several related studies on the role of U.S...
...Each study further seeks to identify various groupings in the population--ethnic, geographic, economic, social, etc.-and their attitudes and probable behavior toward the United States...
...Whittaker of North Dakota State College...
...Hearings, 88th Cong., 2d Sess., Pt...
...Throughout the entire conflict, and afte r spending millions of dollars on sociological studies and surveys, the U.S...
...has also attempted on various occasions to obtain the support of other classes or groups in the population which, for various historical, economic or political reasons, are vulnerable to U.S...
...Single copies 50S In This Issue...
...Once an insurgency has broken out, U.S...
...Department of Defense Social/Behavioral Science Re- search Projects Using Information About Foreign Areas," Congressional Record-Senate (May 1, 1969), p. S4422...
...At this point it should be noted that the U.S...
...1, March 1970 Published monthly, except May-June and July-August when it is published bi-monthly, at 418 W. 25 St., New York, New York 10001...
...1 ' Project Camelot was to have filled that gap in our knowledge by identifying the "preconditions and precipitants of internal conflict and the effects of inldggenous government actions on those verbalizing conditions...
...A second CRESS program in PSYOPS, "Characteristics of Communist Societies Relevant to U.S...
...Press, 1967), pp...
...The peaceful evolutionary transfer of sovereignty is now being followed by revolutionary upheavals and coups d'etat...
...Equally fragile have been the working propositions of what can motivate the Saigon forces to be "as loyal, as effective, and as energetic" as the NLF...
...When Lipset moved to Harvard University in 1967, he received another AFOSR contract worth $97,947 for research on "Emergent Leaders in Developing Nations...
...For a complete list of SORO/CRESS ethnographic studies on South Vietnam, see Hearings 1970, pp...
...beneficence for their prosperity, and can thus be compelled to assist the U.S...
...49-50...
...Because of their central role in U.S...
...In testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Relations, SORO stated in 1964 that: "Each handbook provides appeals and symbols of tested persuasiveness for communicating messages to specific audiences in a given country...
...This] technique provides a vehicle to assist the transition from the qualitative to he quantitative, and from subjective impressions to objective analysis...
...economic...
...This study is particularly relevant, CRESS explains, because "the Department of the Army requires detailed information on the changing character of military roles in order to guide U.S...
...The CRESS study, conducted by Robert Boguslaw and Charles Windle, was designed to "develop a prototype simulation of a society undergoing rapid political, social, or economic change in order to...
...House of Representatives, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Internal Organizations and Movements, Winning the Cold War: The U.S...
...2 9 Since the onset of the Vietnam war, CRESS' major responsibility in the area of PSYOPS has logically been the preparation of psychological warfare materials for the U.S...
...2. Counterinsurgency Models The second category of counterinsurgency "software" research is oriented toward the solution of paramilitary problems through the projection of historical or predictive "models" which delineate the stages of insurgency and probable outcome of various government countermeasures at each of these stages...
...strategy calls for its containment t the lowest possible level of violence and mass participation...
...Corporation (RAC) on "The Mobilization and Utilization of Minority Groups for Counterinsurgency...
...Holly J. Kinley, "Development of Strategies in a Simulation of Internal Revolutionary Conflict," The American Behavioral Scientist (Nov., 1966), 5-6...
...Austin W. Betts later told the Department of Defense Subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee that "The research on Afri- can groups focused on the independent countries of black Africa...
...4. Minorities and Elites As noted above, a major objective of U.S...
...4 3 The program has received a $158,380 grant from AID for the preparation of a series of reports on "The Process of Institution-Building...
...As part of this effort, J.J...
...4 6 Another RANI) project...
...Copyright 1970 by the North American Congress on Latin America, Inc...
...Milton Esman and Joseph Eaton of Pittsburgh are coordinating the program...
...According to its authors, James R. Price and Paul Jureidini: "This report has been prepared in response to a Defense Department query regarding the purported use of witchcraft, sorcery and magic by insurgent elements in the Republic of the Congo (Leop...
...2 5 McGinnies' work is augmented by an Air Force-sponsored study of "Cross-Cultural Studies in Persuasion" being conducted by J.C...
...The documents, selected for their relevance to problems encountered in other counterinsurgencies, are supplemented by a commentary that analyzes the problems faced and the solutions found...
...CRESS has conducted similar research on more primitive societies in Third World areas where the U.S...
...designed "to evaluate the effects of several methods for assessing and influencing attitudes in general cultural environments...
...11 Letters...
...4 1 This report was followed by a CRESS program of research on specific Vietnamese minorities, known as the "Ethnographic Studies Series...
...As part of this work, McGinnies in 1966 prepared a report on "Involvement and Source Credibili- ty as Variables in Persuasion with Japanese Students," which described "five experiments conducted in major Tokyo universities to assess the significance of source redibility and per- sonal involvement as factors in the persuasibility of Japanese students...
...J. William Fulbright...
...Hence the first requirement of counterinsurgency research is to locate and identify the-conditions which breed insurgency so that it will be possible to neutralize them or channel them into manageable forms of protest...
...The Japanese official documents translated for this study comprise a report on collective hamlets published by the Manchukuo Ministry of Defense Advisory Department, an organization charged with the ultimate security of Manchuria, and eight documents on selected aspects of Japanese opera- tions, particularly reports on pacification, propaganda and Communist organization...
...4, 1964, from Irving Louis Horowitz, ed., The Rise and Fall of Project Camelot (Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T...
...by Henry Eisen, and one by Lou Cantori of "Political Development and the Role of the Military in Modern Egypt...
...The major research effort in this area is an ongoing CRESS study of "The Changing Role of the Military in the Contemporary World...
...All of these documents are classified...
...policy alternatives which might reduce budgetary and human costs...
...As part of an ongoing program in "Intercultural Communications," CRESS is required to produce "Intercultural Communications Guides" for all Third World countries where the U.S...
...SORO press release, June 15, 1965, from Horowitz, pp...
...At this point, it is perhaps appropriate to reflect for a moment on the fact that in Vietnam the most elaborate counterinsurgency strategies have gone up in smoke...
...Clearly the insurgency process involves an intricate 'web of political, military and economic factors whose parameters and interactions are known intermittently and imprecisely at best...
...A complete list of SORO/CRESS psychological warfare studies on South Vietnam appears in U.S...
Vol. 4 • March 1970 • No. 1
